Russian combat capabilities on Orikhiv front deteriorate significantly – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Specialists from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that the combat capabilities of the Russian units constantly fighting on the Orikhiv front have significantly deteriorated; they can no longer carry out all counterattacks and resist the Ukrainian breakthrough.
Source: ISW
Details: ISW analysts have noted that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, during a conference call with the Russian military leadership, noted a strange group of Russian armed formations operating on the western front of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
They add that Shoigu’s choice may indicate that he is seeking to honour Russian commanders who continue to follow the orders of the Russian military leadership for continuous counterattacks.
Shoigu attributed the successful Russian defensive operations around Robotyne and Verbove to units of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District), 56th Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division), 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet), and the 291st Guards Artillery Brigade (58th CAA, SMD) during a meeting of the Russian military command on 3 October.
Experts noted that Shoigu did not single out other formations commonly credited with holding the Robotyne-Verbove line, such as the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) or the 247th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division).
As the experts report, the Russian Ministry of Defence regularly deliberately downplays or overstates the achievements of certain commanders in order to achieve the political goals of Shoigu or the Russian military command.
Some of the formations selected by Shoigu are constantly counterattacking on the Robotyne-Verbove line to their own detriment.
The report recalls that on 26 September, ISW recorded that units of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment and other formations of the 58th CAA (likely including the 291st Guards Artillery Brigade) continued to counterattack near Novoprokopivka, despite their alleged deteriorated condition.
According to ISW, the involvement of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment in these counterattacks indicates that the combat capabilities of the active elements of the 7th VDV Division have significantly deteriorated and that they can no longer conduct all counterattacks along the Ukrainian breakthrough on the Orikhiv front.
To quote ISW Key Takeaways for 3 October:
- Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu celebrated an odd group of Russian armed formations operating in the western Zaporizhia Oblast direction during a conference call with Russian military leadership.
- Shoigu’s choice of units could indicate he seeks to highlight Russian commanders who continue to follow Russian military leadership’s orders for relentless counterattacks.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signalled its support for both Chechen units in Ukraine and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov amid a recent controversy surrounding interethnic tensions in the Russian government, military, and information space.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to announce his (certain to win) presidential campaign in November 2023, and reportedly intends to discuss the war in Ukraine as little as is necessary in political messaging.
- A Reuters report published on 3 October stated that Russian forces have embedded “Storm-Z” units within conventional Russian units to conduct costly counterattacks against Ukrainian gains in key sectors of the front.
- Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 3 October.
- Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of 2 to 3 October.
- The Armenian Parliament ratified the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Rome Statute on 3 October.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.
- The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly investigating Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit, likely in an attempt to remove government officials with connections to deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
- Russian opposition outlet Verstka revealed that almost half of all occupation officials of the senior and middle management levels in occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts are from Russia.
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