ISW: Russia seizes 505 square kilometres of Ukraine’s territory since October 2023
Pravda Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War reported that since the start of offensive operations in October 2023, Russian troops have seized 505 square kilometres of Ukraine’s territory.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: From 1 January till 28 March this year, Russian troops seized almost 100 square kilometres more than they did in the last three months of 2023.
Military analysts suggest that this pace of advance may be due to a combination of a lack of weapons among the Ukrainians and more favourable weather conditions in winter than in autumn.
ISW noted that this slight increase in the pace of Russian advance does not reflect a threat of Russian operational success.
However, the lack of material and technical resources limits the ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct effective defensive operations while giving Russian forces the flexibility to conduct offensive operations, which could lead to more complex and non-linear opportunities for Russian forces to achieve significant operational success in the future.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 28 March:
- Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from making significant tactical gains along the entire frontline, but continued delays in US security assistance will likely expand the threat of Russian operational success.
- The continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defence umbrella provides one of the most immediate avenues through which Russian forces could generate non-linear operational impacts.
- Russia’s ability to conduct opportunistic but limited offensive actions along Ukraine’s international border with Russia offers Russia further opportunities to constrain Ukrainian manpower and materiel, but Western aid provisions and Ukrainian efforts to address manpower challenges would ease the impacts of such Russian efforts.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to make sensationalised statements as part of Russia’s ongoing reflexive control campaign, which aims to deter further Western military aid provisions to Ukraine and deflect attention from the growing Russian force posturing against NATO.
- Putin’s 27 March statements are neither new nor surprising and best illustrate how the Kremlin routinely overwhelms the Western information space, often with irrelevant or decontextualised truths rather than with outright misinformation or disinformation, to shape global perceptions and advance its own long-term objectives.
- The Russian Investigative Committee unsurprisingly claimed that it has evidence tying Ukraine to the 22 March Crocus City Hall attack amid continued Kremlin efforts to link Ukraine and the West to the terrorist attack to generate more domestic support for the war in Ukraine.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern for heightened ethnic tension in Russian society following the Crocus City Hall attacks and may be falsely blaming Ukraine and the West for the Crocus City Hall attack in order to divert domestic attention away from ethnic tensions.
- Ukrainian drone strikes against oil refineries in Russia are reportedly forcing Russia to import gasoline from Belarus.
- An independent investigation found that international information operation campaigns linked to deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin remained active, despite the Russian government shutting down media companies and organisations overtly linked to Prigozhin after his death.
- Senior Russian officials are intensifying their victim-blaming of Armenian leadership as Armenia continues to distance itself from security relations with Russia after the Kremlin abandoned Armenia to its fate as it lost Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Russian forces made confirmed advances near Donetsk City.
- Russia continues efforts to source ballistic missiles and other weapons from North Korea for use in Ukraine.
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