American expats in Hong Kong may have the power to swing the US presidential election, for good or ill
Hong Kong Free Press
If the US national elections on November 5 go smoothly, not long thereafter we will know whether Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former president Donald Trump will be the nation’s next leader. The result could make the difference between a relatively stable and prosperous future, not just for the United States, and a path to decline and insecurity at home and abroad.
American expatriates in Hong Kong have the potential to influence who moves into the White House. They could also determine which party — centre-left Democrats or populist right-wing Republicans — will control the US Senate and House of Representatives.
About 70,000 US citizens live in Hong Kong and many of them were born here or in mainland China. The number has fallen by about 15,000 in recent years, reportedly driven by Covid and new national security-related laws.
It is difficult to know how many Americans in Hong Kong will vote in the elections. Fewer than one in ten American expats around the world normally do so. Some Americans here are too young to vote, and many others might not take their civic duty very seriously — much like millions of their compatriots in the US. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to assume that many thousands of Americans in Hong Kong are both eligible and willing to vote.
American expats here may be inclined to assume that their number is too small to make a difference. Such an assumption would ignore recent history. Because the US is so evenly divided between left and right, presidential elections can be decided by very narrow margins.
For example, in the 2000 presidential election, Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore after winning the state of Florida by only a few hundred votes. Bush did so despite garnering over half a million fewer votes nationally. This was possible due to the US’s undemocratic Electoral College system, which allocates delegates – who formally elect the president – in a way that gives small states disproportionate power.
Most states are not electorally competitive. California will definitely choose Harris; Idaho will definitely choose Trump. To take the White House, the victorious candidate must win in several battleground “swing” states – those that sometimes prefer Democrats and sometimes Republicans – such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, so as to add to their Electoral College tally. Harris is all but certain to receive the most votes nationally, but Trump could nevertheless regain power if he prevails in several battleground states.
About 1.6 million Americans from seven of those states are currently living abroad. According to reporting by National Public Radio, their votes in next month’s election “could easily be the deciding factor” in determining who becomes president.
It is not difficult for American expats to vote in national elections. Rules for voter registration vary by state, but most expats should be able to register by sending a federal registration form to the clerk of their last voting residence. The NGO votefromabroad.org has a step-by-step guide for requesting an absentee ballot. Expats whose ballots don’t arrive can submit a Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot.
Expats need to do this without delay so that their marked ballots arrive by November 5. If they are voting in jurisdictions controlled by Republicans, it’s especially vital that they follow all the rules. Republicans are actively working to restrict the counting of absentee ballots.
Once American expats receive their ballots, the question becomes whom they should vote for. Patriotism can be a guide. American patriots will be inclined to vote for the candidate that they think will best promote the long-term interests of the United States, provide for national defence, ensure national economic well-being and protect the American way of life, most fundamentally freedom and democracy.
Importantly, to vote as a patriotic American does not preclude voting for candidates that might also promote the well-being of people around the world. That’s because what is good for the United States can also be good for other countries, and vice-versa.
For American patriots, Harris is the obvious pick. On the economy, she would likely build on the successes of outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration, focusing on concrete measures to encourage economic growth alongside policies that incentivise domestic investment, improve infrastructure, expand industries of the future, increase the number of quality jobs, improve worker rights and invest in education.
Harris would likely continue Biden’s efforts to rationally bolster national security capabilities while promoting multilateral cooperation among allied countries, particularly in Europe and East Asia. She would continue assisting Ukraine, and with time she may come to realise that much greater assistance — enough to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to relent — is in the interests of the US and the world.
On the environment, Harris would not work miracles, but she is likely to use the executive branch to limit harm to the environment and continue slow progress toward weaning Americans off fossil fuels. Vitally, Harris is likely to respect constitutional democracy and the rule of law. She would encourage greater voter participation, in contrast to Trump’s efforts to restrict it.
Compared to Trump, Harris would be relatively good for China and its people, albeit relatively bad for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). No doubt she would continue the Biden administration’s trend of confronting Beijing on trade, regional security and human rights. She is likely to reaffirm American promises to aid Taiwan if it is threatened with invasion. All of this would be a good for China if it prevents overreach by Beijing that would bring hardship to the region.
For those American expats in Hong Kong who love China, want what is best for its people, and hope to see a prosperous and peaceful East Asia – one assumes that this is the case with most of them – Harris is the right choice for president. Things become more complicated if any Americans in Hong Kong consider themselves to be what the local government calls Chinese “patriots.”
That’s because to be a so-called Chinese “patriot” in Hong Kong, at least if one comports with what is reported to be the official definition of patriotism here, it seems that one must love the CCP and its leadership. While being a patriot in the US allows one to detest the party in power and even seek its removal, a Chinese “patriot” – or indeed anyone – expressing such a sentiment openly, no matter how much they love China, may end up in jail.
Because Harris is the most credible candidate to stand up to the CCP, any American expats in Hong Kong who are so-called Chinese “patriots” are unlikely to vote for her. They will logically vote for the candidate who will weaken the US: Trump.
If Trump were able to implement many of his economic preferences, the US economy would suffer enormously. The imposition of widespread tariffs on both competitors and friends would lead to inflation and trade conflicts. His plan to end the independence of the Federal Reserve would make interest rates a political tool instead of a means to stabilise prices and promote full employment. Tax cuts for the rich would bankrupt key federal programmes while greatly increasing national debt.
A Trump presidency would be a disaster for US and global security. Trump seems hellbent on abandoning Ukraine to Russian aggression and reducing US support for NATO. He would probably threaten Japan and the Philippines with tariffs instead of reinforcing their cooperation in the face of Chinese aggression. As in his first administration, he would undermine efforts to limit nuclear proliferation, notably in Iran and North Korea.
Trump has promised to build on his past efforts to gut environmental protections and give polluting industries free rein to exploit nature. A vote for Trump would extend the US obsession with fossil fuels and cement China’s leadership in key environmental technologies, including electric cars, batteries and solar panels. He would once again withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement.
Trump would very likely use the powers of the presidency to go after his perceived enemies, to weaken voting rights and protections for minorities, pardon felons who assisted his attempt to overturn the last election, appoint more unqualified federal judges and even commit crimes now that the Supreme Court has ruled that he would be all but immune from prosecution.
On China, Trump would be a thorn in the side of Beijing in the short term. But by undermining the US economy, trade relationships and alliances, and by emboldening Russia and other autocrats, in the long term the objectives of China’s leaders to undermine and eventually replace the US-led international order would be much advanced.
Russia is very actively trying to swing the US election in Trump’s favour. If Beijing’s interests are aligned with Moscow’s, as Chinese officials seem to believe, then they, too, will want Trump to win. The real benefit for the CCP will come in the years and decades to come as a US weakened by Trumpist Republicans allows the mantle of global leadership to pass to the CCP.
Differing notions of patriotism — one patriotism that wants what’s best for the US and the world, including China, and another so-called patriotism that must want what the CCP’s leadership wants – inform how American expats in Hong Kong might vote. American patriots should vote for Harris. She’ll be the best for the United States and its people, for China and its people, and for people elsewhere.
In contrast, if there are any American expats who consider themselves to be so-called Chinese “patriots,” they may vote for Trump because he’ll inadvertently help the CCP and its leadership, even while he’ll be bad for the people of the United States, China and the wider world.
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