Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast could peak in coming months – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
The command of the Russian forces has ordered a high rate of mechanised offensive operations in Ukraine to achieve tactical success before the seasonal mud forms. ISW estimates that the Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast is likely to reach its peak in the coming months.
Source: ISW
Details: Analysts reported that the Russian military command has likely directed their forces to carry out a relatively high pace of mechanised assaults in Ukraine in an effort to achieve significant tactical gains before the muddy conditions of autumn hinder any further movement of armoured vehicles.
The worsening weather in late 2024 and early winter 2024-2025 is expected to further complicate both mechanised and infantry manoeuvres, yet Russian forces may attempt to maintain their offensive pressure in Ukraine’s east despite these challenges.
On 8 October, Ukrainian National Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk reported that Russian forces were increasing their use of armoured vehicles, particularly in the Kharkiv and Pokrovsk areas, to capitalise on dry road and terrain conditions before seasonal rains turn the ground into mud.
Since late July 2024, Russian forces have been executing a high number of mechanised assaults in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, with at least four battalion-sized assaults observed in Ukraine’s east since 25 July 2024.
Additionally, Russian forces have renewed large-scale mechanised assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since late September 2024.
The Russian military command likely seeks to intensify these mechanised offensives to enable their forces to advance across open fields and establish footholds in frontline settlements, which they can then use to stage further operations aimed at achieving key objectives, such as capturing Kurakhove or Pokrovsk, both in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have been relying on small infantry units to move from settlement to settlement, using the cover of windbreaks in open fields, particularly on the Pokrovsk front.
Russian forces are unlikely to halt offensive operations during the mud season in autumn, though adverse weather will probably diminish the effectiveness of their infantry.
The analysts point out that in autumn 2023, despite challenging conditions for mechanised offensives, Russian forces made a determined effort to regain the initiative across the theatre and may attempt to maintain this initiative in autumn by continuing steady offensive pressure under similar conditions.
Russian forces have depleted many of the reserves they had prepared for their intensified summer 2024 offensive, which focused heavily on Donetsk Oblast, and ISW continues to assess that the ongoing Russian offensive is likely to culminate within the next few months.
Poor weather limiting manoeuvring on the battlefield will likely hasten this culmination, but it will not necessarily bring an end to consistent Russian offensive actions in Ukraine’s east in autumn 2024 and early winter 2024-2025.
Russian forces have a track record of fighting past their culmination points and continuing operations through adverse weather.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 October:
- The Russian military command has likely ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanised assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions in autumn 2024 constrain mechanised manoeuver. Poor weather conditions in autumn 2024 and early winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanised and infantry manoeuvres, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties.
- US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reportedly stated that the United States is withholding several US weapon systems and other military communications networks from Ukraine that could support Ukraine’s war effort.
- South Korean Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun stated on 8 October that a limited number of North Korean military personnel are likely operating near the occupied city of Donetsk.
- Russian illegal arms dealer and Ulyanovsk Oblast parliamentarian Viktor Bout reportedly helped broker a deal for Russia to sell arms worth US$10 million to Yemen’s Houthi rebels in August 2024 amid increasing reports of potential Russian arms transfers to the Houthis and deepening Russo-Iranian cooperation.
- Russia banned partially-encrypted communications platform Discord on 8 October, likely degrading some frontline Russian forces’ ad-hoc communications in the near term.
- Russian forces continue to use chemical weapons in Ukraine in a continued apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a party.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Robotyne.
- Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev stated on 8 October that Russian forces may have exhausted their preexisting stocks of aerial bombs for glide bomb strikes.
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