Hong Kong gov’t projects manpower shortage to widen to 180,000 in 2028 given ageing population
Hong Kong Free Press
Hong Kong’s manpower shortage is expected to worsen to 180,000 by 2028 due partly to its rapidly ageing population, a government study has found.
Assuming annual gross domestic product growth of 3.2 per cent, the city will need 3.75 million workers in 2028, the Labour and Welfare Bureau said on Thursday when it released the 2023 Manpower Projection.
The local labour force is projected to be 3.56 million by then but would still fall short in meeting demand in major sectors. The city lacked around 50,000 workers last year, but the gap was expected to widen to 180,000 within five years, the study estimated.
According to the report, Hong Kong will face a shortfall of 60,000 to 65,000 skilled technical workers, the most significant shortage across occupation groups. Some of the professions in demand included mechanics, aircraft maintenance technicians, skilled construction workers and drivers.
The report forecast a shortfall of 44,000 to 49,000 manual labourers, such as cleaners, hotel room attendants and warehouse staff. The service industry, including flight attendants, cooks and salespersons, would see a shortage of 43,000 to 48,000 workers.
There would also be too few managerial and supervisory workers such as information technology specialists, engineers, healthcare professionals and others. The shortage was estimated to reach 27,000 to 32,000.
The construction sector is expected to see a shortage of 45,000 to 55,000 workers.
“The government would enhance and expand local training to preserve the competitiveness of the local workforce amidst the rapidly changing market. In facing the challenge of manpower shortages, Hong Kong would continue to import outside talent and labour at an appropriate scale to meet imminent needs,” Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun said in a statement.
In the next five years, Hong Kong’s manpower demand and supply would be affected by domestic economic growth, government policies for sectoral development and automation and digitalisation in business operations, the government study noted.
China’s national development strategies, Hong Kong’s integration with the mainland, geopolitical tensions and the global economy would also affect the demand for labour.
Hong Kong’s manpower shortage would likely be exacerbated by its ageing workforce, as the government predicted that the median age would rise from 48.3 in 2023 to 50.2 in 2028, one of the highest median ages among developed economies.
Authorities said workers in Hong Kong must pick up new skills and update their knowledge based on market requirements. Skills marked as “essential” by the government included critical thinking and problem-solving, data analysis and multilingual competence.
Workers should also have basic digital literacy, including knowledge of operating artificial intelligence applications, and understanding the development strategies and market trends in mainland China and the Greater Bay Area, the Labour and Welfare Bureau said.
In June last year, a survey conducted by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce found that 74 percent of the 196 companies interviewed had reported manpower shortages. Emigration was cited by 70 per cent of the respondents as the main factor leading to the shrinking of the city’s labour pool.
Hong Kong saw a large population outflow during the Covid-19 pandemic and after Beijing imposed a national security law in 2020 to quell the protests and unrest in the previous year. At the end of 2019, Hong Kong had a population of 7.52 million. The figure dropped to 7.35 million in June 2022 before bouncing back. The city had a population of around 7.53 million as of June this year.
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