Analysts calculate how much new generation Ukraine needs to avoid power outages
Pravda Ukraine
By 2026, Ukraine needs to install 4.3 GW of “green” generation and 1.1 GW of gas plants to meet its urgent needs.
Source: a report by the Instrat think tank, which is available to Ekonomichna Pravda
Quote: “To meet its urgent energy needs, Ukraine urgently needs 4.3 GW of new renewable energy sources (RES) by 2026 and 1.1 GW of new gas plants.”
Details: The think tank believes that photovoltaic power plants can play a key role in upgrading the energy system.
In addition, given the current geopolitical situation, experts are considering two possible development scenarios until 2030:
- The “Front” scenario assumes a protracted war and the front line remaining at its current position until 2030;
- The “Victory” scenario envisages Ukraine regaining control over its entire territory, including Crimea, by 2030.
The think tank writes that in both cases, the country will need an unprecedented increase in energy capacity by 10.5-14.6 GW.
The transition to distributed gas and renewable generation is a more sustainable option, albeit more expensive. Repairing damaged plants will require the least investment – €9.3-12.5 billion over five years. However, reconstructing coal-fired power plants would leave the system vulnerable to attack.
If Ukraine replaces damaged coal generation with RES and gas plants, the investment requirement will increase to €13.6-18.8 billion.
Thus, the 46-50% difference in capital costs between the two approaches is a kind of “security premium”.
Background: In 2025, the energy sector faces the task of commissioning almost 900 MW of distributed generation facilities.
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