Russia replenished tanks lost in 2024, but future issues loom, ISW says
Pravda Ukraine
Russia produced and refurbished more than 1,500 tanks and 2,800 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armoured personnel carriers (APCs) in 2024, which allowed it to compensate for last year’s losses in armoured vehicles. However, analysts estimate that Russia may face a shortage of spare parts and technical difficulties in the future.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Russia has replaced its tank losses and recovered around 75% of its other armoured vehicle losses from 2024.
Quote: “IISS assessed that Russia’s ongoing effort to expand the Russian military and create new units is exacerbating equipment shortages and noted that Russia may also be suffering from a shortage of spare parts to refurbish tanks and armoured vehicles.
IISS assessed that it is highly likely that the Soviet-era tanks and armoured vehicles remaining in Russia’s stores are in a deteriorated condition, which may complicate Russia’s ability to offset high equipment losses in 2025 and beyond.”
Details: ISW analysts believe that the Russian military command is trying to balance the distribution of refurbished and newly produced equipment between new units and those that have been in combat for a long time.
Quote: “Russia may struggle to adequately equip its units with materiel in the long term if the Russian military continues to burn through Soviet-era vehicle stocks without significantly increasing Russia’s ability to produce new tanks and armoured vehicles.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 February:
- Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the 12 February Ukraine Defence Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting.
- Russia reportedly lost just over 5,000 tanks and armoured vehicles during 2024 compared with 3,000 in 2023.
- IISS noted that Russia has adapted some of its tactics to address ongoing equipment shortages and is increasingly relying on infantry-led assaults to advance along the frontline.
- It remains unclear if Russia can repair and newly-produce a sufficient number of tanks and armoured vehicles to replace losses in Ukraine and equip new Russian units.
- Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) assessed that Russia is attempting to build its capabilities not only to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine but also to prepare for a potential future war with NATO, which is consistent with ISW’s assessments about ongoing Russian efforts to prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long term.
- Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian energy and military infrastructure as part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defence industrial enterprises.
- The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced on 13 February the termination of the Moldovan-Russian Intergovernmental Agreement on the establishment and functioning of Russian cultural centres in Moldova in response to ongoing reports of Russian drones violating Moldovan airspace.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Siversk.
- Russian officials continue efforts to increase recruitment for the “BARS-Bryansk” volunteer territorial defence detachment.
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