Kremlin unwilling to hold fair negotiations and end war – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russia’s statements and actions once again underscore the Kremlin’s unwillingness to negotiate fairly and end the war in Ukraine.
Source: ISW
Details: The Kremlin once again reiterated its claim that Ukraine lacks sovereignty, setting the stage for Moscow to argue that Ukraine has no right to negotiate with Russia or that any future agreements reached with Ukraine are invalid.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on 16 February that Russia had adjusted its approach to potential negotiations with Ukraine because Ukraine allegedly has a “deficit” of sovereignty.
Peskov also continued the Kremlin’s long-standing attempts to place blame for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine would have been “intact”, that the Ukrainian government would not have “abused” Russians in eastern Ukraine, that there would have been no “civil war”, and that Russians in eastern Ukraine would not have had “a desire… to separate from Ukraine” if Ukraine had implemented the Minsk agreements.
Quote: “The Minsk agreements were notably extremely favourable to Russia, placing no obligations on Moscow, yet Russian proxies continually violated the accords with Russian support.
Kremlin-controlled state media used a 15 February interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate the Kremlin’s false narrative about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s illegitimacy.”
Details: The analysts note that Medvedchuk’s interview and Peskov’s statements of 16 February continue to cast doubt on Moscow’s readiness to negotiate fairly in order to resolve the war and create information conditions for Russia to violate any agreements reached on the grounds that the Ukrainian authorities allegedly had no legal right to conclude them.
The report also points out that the Kremlin has extended an open invitation to US President Donald Trump to attend the 9 May parade in Moscow as part of efforts to demonstrate Russia’s strength and status as a global power.
Quote: “Putin has often used his 9 May speeches to emphasise the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany while minimising the contributions of the other Western Allies.
Putin has even previously claimed that the Soviet Union acted ‘alone’ in the Second World War.
The 2025 Victory Day parade will notably celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, and Putin has named 2025 the ‘Year of the Defender of the Fatherland’.”
Details: The ISW review notes that Putin is trying to present himself as equal to Trump and present Russia as a global power comparable to the United States and as the heir to the “superpower” status of the Soviet Union.
The analysts add that the Russian military appears to be preparing for a multi-year effort to capture Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast, which once again underscores Putin’s clear disinterest in a lasting and durable peace in Ukraine.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 February:
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone call on 16 February to “open a channel of communication” for future talks about the war in Ukraine.
- US, Russian and Ukrainian delegations are reportedly gathering in Saudi Arabia ahead of bilateral US-Russia and US-Ukraine negotiations in the coming weeks.
- Ukraine’s European partners reiterated their support for Ukraine’s war effort and domestic defence industry at the Munich Security Conference.
- The Kremlin officially reiterated its claim that Ukraine has no sovereignty, setting conditions for Moscow to claim that Ukraine has no standing to negotiate with Russia or that any agreements reached with Ukraine in the future are invalid.
- Medvedchuk’s interview and Peskov’s 16 February statements continue to cast doubt on Moscow’s willingness to negotiate in good faith about a settlement of the war and set informational conditions for Russia to violate any agreement reached on the grounds that the Ukrainian government had no legal right to conclude it.
- The Kremlin extended an open invitation to US President Donald Trump to attend the 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow as part of efforts to posture Russia’s strength and global power status.
- Western reporting suggests that the United States intends to ease sanctions on Belarus. Russia uses Belarus as a staging ground for its military against Ukraine and NATO and as a critical tool in its sanctions evasion schemes.
- The Russian military command reportedly redeployed additional elements of the Southern Military District’s (SMD) 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) to the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk fronts, further indicating that the Russian military command intends to prioritise putting pressure on Kostiantynivka – the southernmost point of Ukraine’s “fortress belt” – in 2025.
- The Russian military appears to be committing to a multi-year-long effort to seize Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast, further underscoring Russia’s Putin’s apparent disinterest in a lasting and enduring peace in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupiansk, Siversk and Kurakhove.
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