Belarus unlikely to enter Ukraine war, says Latvian counterintelligence
Pravda Ukraine
Belarus is unlikely to enter Russia’s war against Ukraine anytime soon, as doing so could seriously undermine the country’s internal political stability and the position of its self-proclaimed leader, Alexander Lukashenko.
Source: Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, a Latvian counterintelligence service, as reported by European Pravda, citing Delfi, a Baltic states news website
Details: In its annual performance report for the past year, the Bureau concluded that Lukashenko’s regime remains stable, primarily due to repression and restrictions on freedom of speech. Meanwhile, Belarus is becoming increasingly dependent on Russia, with Moscow’s influence on the country continuing to grow.
Russian interests continue to dominate the country’s foreign policy. Minsk continues to look for new cooperation partners and markets for Belarusian goods. Many of Russia’s instruments of influence in Belarus will likely persist even after the departure of Lukashenko and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
The parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024 and 2025 showed that the regime still controls the situation in Belarus.
In 2024, Belarusian security forces escalated repression against opposition figures and their relatives. Despite this, the opposition remained active last year, though interest in democratic movements remained low for various reasons. For example, any involvement in such activities is considered personally dangerous and can lead to several years in prison, the report says.
Russia also intensified efforts last year to further integrate Belarus into a unified state structure.
Latvian counterintelligence assesses that Belarus is unlikely to directly join Russia’s war against Ukraine in the near future, as doing so could destabilise the country politically and weaken Lukashenko’s position, particularly amid strong public opposition to the Belarusian military’s involvement in combat.
Lukashenko’s cooperation with the Kremlin serves as a guarantee of his presidential powers, enabling him to maintain power and ensure the stability of his regime. However, the Belarusian leader is aware that such support jeopardises his ability to continue to lead the country, so Lukashenko is increasingly concerned about the need to reduce Belarus’ isolation from the West in order to balance Russian influence, the report says.
Background: Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that Belarusians show little support for the country’s involvement in hostilities against Ukraine, and therefore, it is unlikely to occur.
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