Russia trying to show China shares its views on Ukraine war, ISW reports
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russia is attempting to portray China as aligning more closely with the Kremlin’s stance on the war in Ukraine than Beijing is willing to openly acknowledge.
Source: ISW
Quote from ISW: “The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as more aligned with its stance on the war in Ukraine than the PRC is willing to publicly message.”
Details: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Summit in South Africa on 20 February.
An official statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that Wang Yi had emphasised China’s focus on addressing the “root causes” of the war in Ukraine as part of its approach to resolving the issue.
However, ISW points out that an official report by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the meeting differs significantly and states that Lavrov said that Russia, not China, seeks to eliminate the “root causes” of the war.
Quote from ISW: “The Russian MFA’s likely purposeful misattribution reflects Russia’s attempt to align the PRC’s position on the war fully with its own in an effort to bolster its international standing and to shape Russian domestic perceptions of Russia’s relationship with China.”
Details: The ISW notes that Russian officials have explicitly identified the “root causes” of the war as an alleged breach of NATO’s commitment not to expand eastward near the Russian border. This suggests that the Kremlin is intent on imposing its will and security interests on the United States and Europe, with little interest in compromising on this demand.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 20 February:
- The Financial Times (FT) published an investigation on 20 February supporting ISW’s long-held assessment that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
- FT’s investigation suggests that more senior Russian commanders may also be complicit in issuing orders to execute Ukrainian POWs.
- Senior Ukrainian intelligence officials reported that North Korean forces are conducting joint operations with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast and are gaining new combat capabilities.
- US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 20 February.
- The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as more aligned with its stance on the war in Ukraine than the PRC is willing to publicly message.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
- Russia is reportedly increasing its production of glide bombs and modernising its cruise missiles.
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