Russia may push US to revise ceasefire agreement with Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
After analysing the data collected, experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have indicated that Russia may “formally” agree to the terms of a ceasefire and push the United States to revise its agreement with Ukraine on the temporary halt in fighting.
Source: ISW
Details: Russian leader Vladimir Putin may use the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed as leverage to secure concessions in advance of any formal peace talks.
Reuters wrote on 12 March that senior Russian officials had stated that any agreement on a temporary ceasefire must “take into account” Russia’s territorial gains and “address [Russia’s] concerns”.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg cited sources familiar with the Kremlin’s position, stating that Putin intends to prolong the process of agreeing to a ceasefire to ensure his demands “are taken into account”.
A Kremlin-linked source suggested that Russia might insist on halting arms supplies to Ukraine as a prerequisite for a ceasefire agreement. However, it remains unclear whether this would apply to all international military assistance or only that from specific nations.
Quote from ISW: “Suspending US or other military assistance to Ukraine during a ceasefire would be extremely advantageous to Russia, which continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North Korea, and the People’s Republic of China. Such an enormous concession would also destroy US leverage in future negotiations, in addition to violating the conditions under which Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire in the first place.”
Details: A Russian media outlet reported that the Kremlin would issue a formal positive response to the temporary ceasefire proposal while simultaneously setting “impossible conditions” that Ukraine would be unable to accept.
According to the outlet’s source, Putin aims to exclude Ukraine from the talks, seeking direct talks with the United States instead and also “correcting the situation on the front” to bolster Russia’s position in future discussions.
The source further stated that any ceasefire terms “must suit Russia”, arguing that agreeing to a temporary truce while Ukraine continues to receive military aid and financial support from its allies would be “stupid”.
Quote from ISW: “These leaks may be intentional and part of a Russian negotiating strategy that aims to push the United States to renegotiate its deal with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 12 March:
- Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on 12 March to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed in order to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started.
- Senior US and Ukrainian officials have said that the purpose of the temporary ceasefire is for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace and that the temporary ceasefire and negotiations to end the war are separate matters, whereas the Kremlin may intend to conjoin them.
- Russian insider reports about the demands that the Kremlin may make before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire are in line with Russian officials’ public statements in the past months.
- US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergei Naryshkin had a phone call on 11 March amid talks about the war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on 12 March.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin visited a Russian military command post in Kursk Oblast for the first time since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 – demonstrating Putin’s desire to use Russia’s seizure of Sudzha to project military success and strength against the backdrop of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
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