ISW: Putin is unlikely to give up his ambitions for Ukraine in case of ceasefire
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have assessed that even if a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin is unlikely to give up his ambitions for the country.
Source: ISW
Details: Mike Waltz, US President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser, said on 16 March that Ukraine would receive some security guarantees in exchange for some territorial concessions, although he did not specify which guarantees he meant or which concessions he was referring to.
Waltz also said that the United States is considering “the reality of the situation on the ground” in diplomatic negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Quote: “It is not clear exactly what Waltz meant by ‘the reality of the situation on the ground’. Russian officials have frequently used the narrative that any negotiations must consider the ‘realities on the ground’ to refer to the current front line in Ukraine and their claims of the inevitability of further Russian battlefield gains.”
Details: Meanwhile, analysts believe that Waltz’s acknowledgement that Ukraine will receive undefined security guarantees is a key aspect of achieving US President Donald Trump’s stated goal of ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine, but that the cessation of combat actions on unprotected lines would limit the effectiveness of security guarantees.
It was noted that the current line of contact does not provide the strategic depth Ukraine needs to reliably defend itself against renewed Russian aggression.
Quote: “Russian forces are just across the Dnipro River from Kherson City, roughly 25 kilometres from Zaporizhzhia City, and 30 kilometres from Kharkiv City.
Russian troops on the Dnipro River could use a ceasefire to prepare for the extremely difficult task of conducting an opposed river crossing undisturbed, significantly increasing the likelihood of success in such an endeavour.
Stopping a well-prepared, major mechanised offensive cold is extremely rare in war, which means that a renewed Russian assault would likely threaten both Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia cities, as well as key cities in the Donetsk ‘fortress belt’, almost immediately.”
Details: The analysts also pointed out that Russia is building a major motorway and railway aimed at connecting major cities in Russia and the occupied part of Ukraine. This is supposed to strengthen Russia’s control over occupied Ukraine and enhance Russia’s ability to transport and supply Russian forces operating in Ukraine in the event of a future Russian offensive in Ukraine’s south.
Quote: “The US and Europe would likely need to provide military aid to Ukraine more rapidly, in much larger volumes, and at higher cost the closer the ultimate ceasefire lines are to the current front line.
Ukraine would likely need an even larger military with greater capabilities to play its critical role in deterring and, if necessary, defeating future aggression along the current front line (both within Ukraine and along Ukraine’s international border with Russia) that is over 2,100 kilometres long.”
More details: Enforcing a ceasefire along the current line of contact would also require a large number of Western forces. Assisting Ukraine in the recapturing of strategically important areas, as Trump has suggested, could significantly reduce the cost and complexity of securing a future peace.
A ceasefire in more defensible positions would also disadvantage Russian forces in resuming offensive operations, making future Russian aggression less likely.
Russian officials, however, maintain their maximalist territorial claims to all of occupied and much of non-occupied Ukraine.
Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian leader Vladimir Putin, have consistently demanded that Ukraine give up all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, including those areas not yet occupied by Russian forces, and have reiterated these demands in recent weeks.
Quote: “Continued Kremlin statements demanding that Ukraine cede unoccupied Ukrainian territory indicate that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial goals despite ongoing negotiations.”
Details: In addition, Putin has repeatedly called on Ukraine to permanently abandon its goals of joining NATO or any security bloc and to reject future offers of foreign military assistance, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated that Russia would reject the future deployment of any European peacekeepers to Ukraine and would consider any such deployment to be “direct, official, undisguised interference by NATO countries” in the war.
Given the Kremlin’s demands, the ISW notes, it is unlikely that Putin will give up his ambitions for Ukraine even after the ceasefire.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 March:
- US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz stated on 16 March that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.
- The current front lines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression.
- Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukraine and significant parts of unoccupied Ukraine, however.
- Russian officials have given no public indications that they are willing to make concessions on their territorial or security demands of Ukraine.
- Russia continues to seize on diplomatic engagements with the United States to normalise its war demands.
- The UK convened a virtual Coalition of the Willing summit on 15 March to reiterate support for Ukraine and discuss plans for peace.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Velyka Novosilka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues efforts to posture as solving issues with the Russian military.
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