German intelligence chief believes Russia might test effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5
Pravda Ukraine
Bruno Kahl, President of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), suggests that Russia is considering testing NATO’s collective security guarantees and that this risk will increase if the fighting in Ukraine stops in the near future.
Source: Bruno Kahl in an interview with Deutsche Welle, as European Pravda reported with the reference to dpa, a German news agency
Details: Bruno Kahl believes Russia will likely want to test the unity of Western countries and the effectiveness of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides that an attack on one of the NATO member states is considered an attack on all of them.
Quote from Bruno Kahl: “We very much hope this is not true and that we will not be put in the difficult position of it being tested. However, we must assume that Russia wants to test us, to put the unity of the West to the test.”
Details: The BND president says that the timing and probability of such a “test” are directly related to how events in the Russo-Ukrainian war will continue to develop.
Kahl noted that if the war ends before 2029-2030, Russia will be able to become a threat to Europe more quickly.
“It is also possible that a concrete threat or blackmail attempt from Russia against Europeans could occur earlier than previously calculated. An early end to the war in Ukraine would enable the Russians to direct their energy where they actually want it, namely against Europe,” said Bruno Kahl.
The head of intelligence says Russia hopes that the future world order will be similar to that of the 1990s, that the Russian “sphere of influence” will expand further west, and that, in the most desirable scenario, the United States will withdraw its troops from Europe.
Background:
- On 4 March, the German parties CDU/CSU and SPD, which are negotiating the formation of a government led by Friedrich Merz, agreed on a multi-billion dollar package of defence and infrastructure financing on credit.
- All defence expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP will be exempt from debt restrictions.
- German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a “historic day” for the Bundeswehr and Germany.
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