Inflation in Ukraine accelerates to 13.4%
Pravda Ukraine
In February, consumer inflation dynamics remained close to the trajectory forecast by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), but core inflation continued to be higher than expected due to rising business costs, particularly for salaries.
Source: National Bank of Ukraine
Details: Prices for raw food products rose by 13%, with fruit, certain livestock products, flour and grain becoming more expensive due to the lingering effects of last year’s poor harvests. Prices for pork, poultry and sugar approached those in Ukraine’s trading partner countries on the back of stable exports.
Meanwhile, vegetable price increases slowed slightly due to increased imports, the arrival of a new greenhouse harvest and lower demand for some items.
Processed food inflation accelerated to 16.7% in February due to rising costs of raw materials and increased business expenses for electricity, salaries and logistics. As a result, bread, certain bakery products, oil, meat and dairy products saw significant price hikes. Additionally, rising global market prices led to higher costs for some imported goods, such as cheese, tea, coffee and chocolate.
Prices for non-food items grew slightly faster, reaching 4.4% year-on-year. However, clothing and footwear prices remained lower than last year.
The pace of service price increases also slightly accelerated to 14.3%.
Regulated prices rose by 18.1%. The cost of excisable goods increased more rapidly due to higher production costs and price adjustments linked to stricter measures against the shadow market and the likely impact of the expected test launch of the E-excise system. Rising production costs also drove up prices for pharmaceuticals, medical goods and equipment. However, the ongoing moratorium on tariff hikes for certain utility services continued to curb administrative inflation.
Fuel prices increased by 13.9%. In February, fuel price growth accelerated compared to January, mainly due to a sharp rise in the cost of LPG vehicle fuel.
However, an oversupply of petrol, competition among fuel stations and optimised import logistics helped restrain further price increases.
The NBU forecasts that inflation will continue rising in the coming months due to the ongoing impact of last year’s poor harvests and rising energy and labour costs for businesses.
However, the NBU expects inflation to slow in the second half of the year due to tighter monetary policy measures and the gradual fading of temporary inflationary factors. Inflation is expected to drop to a single-digit level by the end of the year and continue moving towards the 5% target in the long run.
Background: Consumer inflation in Ukraine increased by 0.8% in February 2025 compared to January, reaching an annual rate of 13.4%.
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