ISW analyses Russia’s reaction to possible ceasefire
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out that Russian ultranationalists have not welcomed the proposal for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, but state-run Russian media outlets are “likely attempting to portray the immediate Russian reaction as moderate for domestic audiences”.
Source: ISW
Details: ISW noted that during a meeting in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia on 11 March, Washington and Kyiv had agreed to a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, contingent on Russian consent. The US has also reportedly resumed intelligence sharing and military assistance to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the ceasefire would involve a halt to hostilities across the entire war zone, a moratorium on long-range missile and drone strikes and a suspension of operations in the Black Sea. It would take effect as soon as Russia agrees to the US proposal.
During a press conference on 11 March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it should come “as quickly as possible” when asked about the deadline for Russia’s response.
Meanwhile, analysts point out that Russian ultranationalists and officials have expressed their rejection of the ceasefire proposal.
Russian bloggers, including those close to the Kremlin, claimed that the United States and Ukraine would “abandon” peace “at the first opportunity” and that the war in Ukraine is “existential for Russia”.
These bloggers also claimed that accepting the ceasefire would be “pure betrayal and sabotage”.
In addition, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, a member of the Russian State Duma [lower chamber of the Russian parliament] and former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, argued that Russia should reject the 30-day ceasefire proposal, calling it “unacceptable” as it would give Ukraine time to rearm and regroup.
Quote from ISW: “The Kremlin has not officially responded to the ceasefire proposal as of this publication, and Russian state media is attempting to frame earlier official Russian statements about bilateral US-Russian negotiations as responses to the ceasefire proposal.”
Details: The ISW also noted that after the ceasefire proposal was announced, Russian state media circulated a statement by Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, on 11 March, saying that Russia “does not rule out” contacts with the United States in the coming days.
Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the State Duma’s Security Committee, stated before the joint statement was issued that Russia was open to a settlement in Ukraine, though it would not be deceived. Russian state media only amplified his remarks after the ceasefire proposal was announced.
Quote from ISW: “Russian state media is likely attempting to portray the immediate Russian reaction as moderate for domestic audiences until Kremlin officials make public statements and provide a framing for broader Russian media coverage of the proposal.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 11 March:
- The United States and Ukraine agreed on 11 March to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia’s agreement and the US reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid.
- Ukraine’s allies and partners from Europe, Asia and Oceania continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees – the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace agreement.
- Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have likely begun attacking Sudzha.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of 10 to 11 March, largely targeting Moscow Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Robotyne and in Kursk Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to expand social benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who have fought for the militias of the “Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics” (“DNR” and “LNR”) since 2014. [“DNR” and “LNR” are considered by Kyiv to be terrorist organisations and Russian-controlled proxy states, created, armed and backed by Moscow, which, with Russian military support, illegally seized and continues to occupy Ukrainian territory – ed.]
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