Kremlin not going to give up its goals in war against Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is not going to make concessions for peace talks and supports demands aimed at destroying the Ukrainian state.
Source: ISW
Quote from the ISW: “The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations – namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarisation of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine’s future membership in NATO.”
Details: Kremlin adviser and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev rejected any suggestion that Russia might consider handing back occupied territories to Ukraine during future negotiations. In an interview with the Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda published on 14 January, Patrushev declared that the idea was “not even up for discussion”.
Patrushev falsely claimed that the sham referendums conducted in the occupied territories of Ukraine in September 2022 legitimised Russia’s claims to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. He also suggested that international recognition of Russia’s illegal occupation and annexation of these four oblasts, as well as Crimea, was a non-negotiable precondition for any peace agreement.
Patrushev reaffirmed that Russia’s objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged and that the Kremlin is committed to achieving all the goals Russian leader Vladimir Putin cited to justify the full-scale invasion.
Quote from the ISW: “Putin identified the ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine as the key goals of the full-scale invasion during a speech on February 23, 2022 – and these goals amount to the destruction of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and replacement of the legitimate Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government.”
“ISW continues to assess that Putin’s goals in Ukraine are to break up NATO and seize full control over Ukraine and that Putin remains committed to these goals, and ISW has not observed any indication that Putin is willing to concede on such goals in future negotiations.”
Details: Russian officials persist in denying the existence of an independent Ukrainian identity and statehood separate from Russia, as part of their continued efforts to justify destruction of the Ukrainian state.
At a press conference on 14 January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to “the country that is now called Ukraine”, seemingly aiming to delegitimise Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence.
Patrushev also emphasised the so-called “brotherly” ties between Russia and Ukraine, dismissing the idea that the two nations have distinct cultural and historical identities.
Quote from the ISW: “The Kremlin’s ongoing information operation attempting to portray Russians and Ukrainians as one unified nation and culturally and historically homogeneous is one of its most significant information operations aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine. Calls for the West to acquiesce to all of Russia’s demands in Ukraine require the West to tacitly acknowledge and agree that a Ukrainian identity and state independent from Russia either does not currently exist or does not deserve to exist in the future.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 January:
- The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarisation of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine’s future membership in NATO.
- Patrushev stated that Russia’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian leader Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
- Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
- Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
- The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defence industrial targets in Russia on the night of 13-14 January.
- Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
- Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
- Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on 14 January.
- Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
- Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD).
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