New assault operations on Avdiivka front won’t mean rapid advance for Russians – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that the Russians have launched new assault operations on Avdiivka with weaker mechanised forces and that their attacks will not lead to a rapid advance.
Source: ISW
Details: Ukrainian officials reported that Russian troops had launched a new offensive operation on Avdiivka.
The ISW experts are also suggesting that this offensive is being carried out with weaker mechanised forces than during the previous offensive waves in October.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops repelled at least 50 Russian attacks on the Avdiivka front on 23 and 24 November.
The ISW experts noted that large-scale infantry ground assaults are likely to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces defending the Avdiivka front, but will not lead to a rapid Russian advance in the region.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 24 November:
- Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces began a renewed offensive effort towards Avdiivka on 22 November.
- High-ranking Russian officials may be engaged in a wider scheme of forcibly adopting deported Ukrainian children.
- Ukraine’s Western allies declared their commitment to further develop Ukrainian air defence capabilities during the 17th Ramstein Group virtual meeting on 22 November.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) Collective Security Council session in Minsk, Belarus, on 23 November.
- Chinese businesses are reportedly working with Russian businessmen to plan the construction of an underwater tunnel that would connect Russia with occupied Crimea.
- European states are responding to Russia’s continued orchestration of an artificially created migrant crisis on its northwestern borders.
- Russian law enforcement reportedly detained about 700 migrants at a warehouse in Moscow Oblast and issued some military summonses, likely as part of an ongoing effort to coerce migrants into Russian military service.
- The Kremlin is reportedly renewing attempts to control all video surveillance systems in Russia, likely as part of ongoing efforts to intensify its tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repressions.
- Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and marginally advanced in some areas.
- The Russian aviation industry is likely under significant constraints due to international sanctions and demands from the Russian defence industrial base (DIB).
- The Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine into Russian national and cultural identities.
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