North Korean forces might suffer 30,000 to 45,000 casualties monthly in Russia’s Kursk Oblast – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have indicated that the new deployment of North Korean troops will sustain the current pace of infantry assaults in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. However, they are likely to suffer comparable losses, with 30,000 to 45,000 killed and injured per month.
Source: ISW
Details: North Korea is expected to send additional military personnel to Russia by mid-March 2025, likely to sustain the current rate and intensity of infantry-focused, attritional assaults in Kursk Oblast.
On 22 January, The New York Times reported that a senior US defence official said additional North Korean forces are set to arrive in Russia “within the next two months” (by approximately mid-March 2025). The NYT, however, did not provide details on the number of troops or clarify whether this marks a rotation of personnel or an expansion of North Korea’s overall troop deployment in Russia.
On 23 December, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that North Korea could be planning to send more forces to Ukraine and military equipment to Russia. This could entail either rotating existing personnel or deploying additional troops.
Quote: “ISW recently assessed that the entirety of the North Korean contingent in Russia may be killed or wounded in action by about mid-April 2025 at their current casualty rate, and a new North Korean deployment – whether intended to increase the current grouping or rotate out existing forces – is likely intended to sustain Russia’s tempo of operations despite heavy losses of about 30,000 – 45,000 casualties (combined killed and wounded) per month.”
Details: North Korean forces are said to have spent at least a month training in Russia’s east before moving to Kursk Oblast in November 2024 for additional training in rear areas, eventually participating in combat operations from early December 2024.
This timeline aligns with the likelihood that a new group of North Korean forces could begin training and replace the diminishing forces in Kursk Oblast by mid-April 2025. This assumes the next batch of North Korean troops will undergo the same length of training as the previous contingent and are expected to be deployed to Russia in late January or early February 2025.
Quote: “These fresh North Korean forces are unlikely to decisively improve Russian operations and will likely face the same high casualty rates and complications operating with Russian forces as the current North Korean contingent, provided the Russian command continues to use North Korean forces the same way as it has thus far.”
“ISW continues to assess that North Korea’s high casualty rate and interoperability difficulties with Russian forces will affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in Russia’s war.”
Background:
- Ukrainian soldiers captured two North Korean soldiers in Kursk Oblast on 11 January.
- Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SOF) released a video showing their operatives capturing and transporting a North Korean soldier.
- On 20 January, a North Korean soldier captured by SOF fighters in Kursk Oblast revealed that he had served in an intelligence battalion and claimed he did not know who he would be fighting against.
- Ukrainian soldiers from the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade shared how they had captured a North Korean soldier in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Attempting to avoid capture, he hit his head on a concrete pole and lost consciousness.
- Operatives from SOF killed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who had been advancing on Ukrainian positions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Support UP or become our patron!