Number of conscripts in Russia is equal or lower than its losses in war against Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Russian army’s monthly conscription is likely equal to or lower than the number needed to fully replace Russia’s monthly losses in the war against Ukraine.
Source: ISW
Details: Analysts note that Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin’s decision not to hold forced mibilisation at this time, despite signs that the Russian army is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to replace its high casualties.
Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the State Duma Defence Committee, said on 4 February that Russia does not need to conduct another partial conscription of reservists, as Russia currently has “an advantage on the battlefield”.
State Duma Defence Committee member Viktor Sobolev added that 740,000 people have signed contracts to serve in the Russian army – presumably since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – and said that mobilisation would “only worsen the situation” by sending people to the front without prior military experience or specialised skills.
Andrey Krasov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Defence Committee, also said that mobilisation was not necessary, as Russian military commissars were allegedly successfully recruiting new personnel.
Experts suggest that these Russian Duma members are convinced that Russia’s mobilisation figures are sufficient to allay the Russian public’s fears about a potentially unpopular new partial involuntary conscription of the reserve.
However, the report adds that the Russian military may have difficulty recruiting enough new soldiers.
Quote: “ISW observed reports in late 2024 and January 2025 that the Russian military’s monthly recruitment rate is likely equal to or below the quantity needed to replace Russia’s monthly casualty rate one-to-one.
ISW also observed reports that select Russian federal subjects are failing to meet their monthly recruitment quotas as citizens are less willing to volunteer to fight.”
Details: On 3 February, the Russian Ministry of Defence proposed draft amendments that would change the classification of certain diseases, illnesses, and disorders for military personnel serving in regular service and those who sign conscription contracts.
The Russian Ministry of Defence proposed to reclassify syphilis, hypertension, atrophic disorders of the central nervous system, skin diseases, schizophrenia, psychotic disorders, mood disorders and other health problems as milder illnesses that do not deprive one of the right to serve in the army.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 4 February:
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited the Kyivska Electrical Substation in Kyiv Oblast on 4 February to assess damage to the substation as Russian long-range strikes targeting energy infrastructure continue to threaten Ukraine’s nuclear power plants (NPPS) and Ukraine’s energy production capabilities.
- Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin’s decision to not conduct an involuntary reserve call up at this time despite indications that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to replace its high casualties.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to discuss Russia’s possible illegal annexation of Kharkiv Oblast but claimed that Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast spoiled Russia’s plans to hold a “referendum” in the region at that time.
- A significant number of Russian vessels that had been at the Port of Tartus in recent weeks may have left Syria for Russia as Russian-Syrian negotiations about Russia’s continued access to its bases in Syria reportedly continue.
- Ukrainian naval drone strikes have likely forced Russia to dramatically alter Russian ships’ routes between Russia and Syria.
- Russia has also reportedly used vessels belonging to the MoD’s Oboronlogistika company to monitor NATO vessels in the Baltic Sea.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk.
- A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces on the Siversk front continue to struggle with systemic issues with field commanders filing false progress reports despite recent command changes.
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