Offensive on Toretsk front may indicate change in Russia’s priorities – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Russian forces are preparing to capture the city of Toretsk in the coming days. The redeployment of elements from the Eastern Military District (EMD) to reinforce Russian troops on the Toretsk front may indicate Russia’s new priority efforts to resume attacks towards Kostiantynivka.
Source: ISW
Quote: “ISW previously assessed that Russian forces likely intend to exploit the seizure of Toretsk to push further west and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostiantynivka highway towards the southernmost point of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Kostiantynivka.”
Details: Russian progress on the Toretsk front has been slow due to intense fighting in densely populated urban zones. However, their pace could increase significantly if they manage to push beyond Toretsk and enter the open fields to the west of the settlement.
Quote: “Russian forces may also attempt to leverage tactical gains within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian salient southwest of Toretsk and select Russian milbloggers have recently speculated that Russian forces may be intensifying offensive operations southwest of Toretsk for this purpose.”
Details: ISW suggests that Russian forces may focus on removing the Ukrainian salient southwest of Toretsk to strengthen their southern flank ahead of a potential advance on Kostiantynivka.
The Russian command could move units from the Eastern Military District to support offensives on the Toretsk front, particularly if they aim to target Ukraine’s defensive positions in Donetsk Oblast during the spring and summer of 2025.
Capturing Pokrovsk has been a key goal for the Russian military in Donetsk Oblast since February 2024.
Quote: “A Russian redeployment of EMD elements to the Toretsk or Chasiv Yar directions – as opposed to retaining the EMD elements in western Donetsk Oblast, redeploying them to the Zaporizhzhia direction, or redeploying them to the Pokrovsk direction – would therefore indicate an inflection in Russian operational priorities.”
Background:
- Fierce fighting continues in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast. The Russians are using scorched earth tactics to try to destroy the city’s infrastructure and the positions of the Ukrainian military.
- Ukrainian military news outlet Militarnyi predicts that the Russians will continue their efforts to complete the capture of Kurakhove, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, advance towards the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with the prospect of launching hostilities in the oblast and expand their control over Donetsk Oblast territory in all directions.
- The DeepState analytical project reported that the operational situation in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, is deteriorating as of 14 January. The Russians are gradually seizing control of the city and intense fighting is occurring in the central and northern districts.
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