Putin and Russians do not want to end war in Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine, and this is influencing Russians who are tending to side with the Kremlin on the continuation of the war.
Source: ISW
Quote: “Kremlin rhetoric about the relatively faster Russian tempo of advances on the battlefield in recent months and continued official statements about the need for Ukraine to ‘denazify’, ‘demilitarise’, and declare neutrality — Putin’s original stated war aims — are likely influencing more Russians to reject a withdrawal in the belief that Russia can achieve these objectives through continued fighting.”
Details: As analysts note, Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine is straining the Russian economy, including through rising inflation, draining Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, and exacerbating existing labour shortages.
The experts believe that Russia is likely to face a number of material, human and economic problems in 12 to 18 months if Ukrainian forces continue to inflict damage on the Russian army on the battlefield at the current rate, which is likely to increase the economic burden felt by the Russian population in the future.
Quote: “Russian leader Vladimir Putin currently remains committed to continuing his war in Ukraine despite rising domestic political and economic pressure and has shown no indication that he is rethinking his determination to compel Ukraine to surrender.
Putin and other Kremlin officials have not abandoned their original war aims in Ukraine and continue to invoke their goals of ‘denazifying’ and ‘demilitarising’ Ukraine and banning Ukraine’s ability to join any security blocs in the future, despite Russia’s failure to defeat Ukraine militarily over the last three years.”
Details: The experts suggest that Putin does not seem to be discouraged by the idea of further prolonging the war despite the significant and probably unbearable losses of personnel and equipment over the past three years.
They add that Putin’s recent statements rejecting the possibility of a peace deal with Ukraine indicate his desire to prolong the war.
Quote: “Putin continues to signal to the Russian military and society that he will not end the war until Ukraine capitulates completely and that he has no interest in a negotiated peace agreement that requires Russia to compromise its long-standing war aims, despite Putin’s efforts to signal interest in peace negotiations to Western leaders.”
Details: Kremlin officials also rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the full surrender of Ukraine and the West on 24 February, again underlining Russia’s unwillingness to make compromises in future peace talks.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference in Türkiye on 24 February that Russia would only stop hostilities in Ukraine if peace talks lead to a “solid, stable result that suits Russia” and account for the “realities” of the battlefield.
Lavrov noted that any peace agreement should include a provision banning Ukraine from joining NATO in the future.
The Russian state TV channel summarised Lavrov’s statements: “Russia will only end combat operations when negotiations end in a way that satisfies Russia”.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made similar statements, stressing that Russia would not agree to a ceasefire that did not address the “root causes” of the war.
In addition, Russian officials continue to present Russia’s demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from areas currently controlled by Ukrainian forces in eastern and southern Ukraine as a “compromise”.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 February:
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on 24 February 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the face of this unjustified Russian aggression.
- Russia has accumulated unsustainable personnel and vehicle losses in the last three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022.
- The United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a Ukrainian- and European-backed resolution on 24 February commemorating the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that recognised Russia as the aggressor in the war, called for a just peace in Ukraine, and supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- Recent polling indicates that Russians are increasingly supportive of Russia continuing the war in Ukraine until it achieves complete Ukrainian capitulation but are simultaneously starting to feel the economic toll of the three years of Russia’s war – casting doubt on Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s ability to continue to balance “butter and guns” at home in the medium- to long-term.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin currently remains committed to continuing his war in Ukraine despite rising domestic political and economic pressure and has shown no indication that he is rethinking his determination to compel Ukraine to surrender.
- Kremlin officials formally rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West on 24 February, further underscoring Russia’s unwillingness to make compromises during future peace negotiations.
- European leaders announced a series of new aid packages during their visit to Kyiv on 24 February for the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion on 24 February.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
- The Kremlin continues to use Muslim religious and cultural structures in Russia for military recruitment.
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