Putin seeks to prolong war, unlikely to agree to any ceasefire – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has not considered the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine and has been trying to prolong the process of any peace agreements.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: ISW analysts noted that the Kremlin’s statements following Putin’s meeting with Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, on 13 March confirm his unwillingness to support the US and Ukraine’s ceasefire initiative. Instead, the Kremlin seeks to prolong the talks process or, if it agrees to a temporary truce, use it to allow Russian troops to rest and rearm.
ISW believes that Putin is most likely to violate any peace agreement and blame Ukraine for its non-compliance.
Quote: “Putin’s recent calls for a direct phone call with Trump are only the latest development in Putin’s efforts to posture Russia and the United States as equals on the global stage. Russian insider sources recently claimed that Putin aims to protract negotiations about a possible temporary ceasefire, and Putin’s recent public statements are consistent with these insider claims.”
Details: US intelligence believes that Putin remains committed to the idea of seizing Ukraine, which is consistent with ISW’s long-term assessments of his strategic goals.
The Washington Post, citing classified US intelligence documents, reported that Putin continues to seek control over Ukraine.
Four representatives of Western intelligence and two members of the US Congress stated in an interview with NBC on 18 February that there is no evidence of Putin’s willingness to engage in genuine peace talks.
According to ISW’s assessments, the Kremlin adheres to its longstanding expansionist plans for Ukraine’s full capitulation, despite talks with Donald Trump’s administration.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 March:
- ISW has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine.
- Putin seized on a statement by US President Donald Trump about the supposed encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast to distract from his recent rejection of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal.
- Kremlin statements following Putin’s meeting with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on 13 March underscore Putin’s rejection of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal and continued unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces marginally advanced towards the international border in Kursk Oblast on 14 March, but Ukrainian forces still maintain limited positions in Kursk Oblast.
- Consistent Ukrainian strikes against Russian air defence assets are reportedly allowing Ukrainian long-range drones to increasingly penetrate the Russian air defense umbrella in deep rear areas, including in Moscow Oblast.
- The Ukrainian military reorganised the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade into the 3rd Army Corps, further showcasing Ukraine’s force efforts to transition to a corps structure.
- Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military assistance and technical support and demonstrate interest in strengthening bilateral cooperation.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Toretsk and near Siversk and Pokrovsk.
Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!