Russia aims to seize Ukrainian cities through ultimatums, not military force – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
The Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine give up major cities, like Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Kramatorsk, through political pressure and negotiations since it is unable to capture them through military means.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: ISW reports that Russia continues to express its intention to capture Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts completely. However, major cities such as Zaporizhzhia (706,000 people), Kherson (275,000) and Kramatorsk (147,000) remain under Ukrainian control.
Analysts say that the occupation of these territories will lead to a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe, as Russia is likely to use the same methods of repression, deportation and forced assimilation that it has used in the territories it has already occupied.
However, Russia’s military offensive has effectively stopped, with the army suffering significant losses in equipment and manpower. Therefore, the Kremlin is trying to use diplomatic pressure and propaganda to force Ukraine to make concessions and abandon control over its cities.
Quote: “Lavrov’s rhetoric is likely an attempt to achieve through negotiations what the Russian military cannot achieve by force.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 February:
- US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on 28 February, likely to sign a US-Ukraine mineral deal. A draft agreement of the deal published ahead of the meeting does not provide US security assistance or security guarantees to Ukraine, however.
- Russian officials directly involved in negotiations with the United States continue to insist that any peace agreement to resolve the war in Ukraine must be based on Russia’s 2021 demands. They also insist on the surrender to Russia of territory that Ukrainian forces currently hold that is home to major cities and well over a million people.
- Russia is demanding that Ukraine surrender several large cities that Russian forces do not currently occupy and have no prospect of seizing, handing over one million Ukrainians to Russia.
- Lavrov’s and other Kremlin officials’ continued rejections of a ceasefire and other terms that US President Donald Trump and European leaders have identified as necessary to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine demonstrate that Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and assesses that he can achieve his war objectives militarily in the medium- to long-term.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Robotyne.
- Russian officials proposed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) assume control over all Russian pre-trial detention facilities amid reports that the FSB is in charge of a pre-trial detention facility linked to the abuse of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
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