Russia increases number and effectiveness of drones and missiles to deplete Ukrainian air defence – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out that Russian forces are increasing the number and effectiveness of drones and missiles to suppress Ukrainian air defence.
Source: ISW
Quote: “Russian forces continue to innovate their strike packages and leverage larger numbers of Shahed and decoy drones in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine’s air defense umbrella.”
Details: Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, said that Russian forces are launching missiles from several different directions. Moreover, the Russians launch 150-200 drones in nightly attacks.
Skibitskyi noted that previously, Russian forces launched missiles from one direction and used an average of 20 to 30 drones during a single nighttime series of strikes.
He said that Russian forces alternate between missiles and drones in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence systems.
Skibitskyi added that Russian forces begin launching drones in the evening so they can reach Ukraine by 23:00 and that strikes continue until morning.
Quote: “ISW observed reports that Russian forces began launching between 80 and 100 (or more) Shahed and decoy drones as part of their larger strike packages in October and November 2024 and have been launching between 100 to 200 (or more) Shahed and decoy drones in February 2025.
Russian forces most likely use large numbers of Shahed and decoy drones to detect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defense and mobile fire groups.”
Details: Analysts noted that the increase in the number of drones in Russian nighttime attacks indicates that Russia is likely not currently facing domestic constraints on the production of Shahed or decoy drones, nor are there any limitations on Iranian components for Shahed production.
However, the review adds, it remains unclear whether Russia will be able to produce or obtain sufficient components to avoid drone production restrictions in the long term.
Also, according to the data analysed by the ISW, Russian missile production has not increased significantly, but Russian forces appear to be prioritising the production of missile and drone variants that are more effective against Ukrainian air defence.
Skibitskyi said that Russia slightly increased its missile production by 1.2-1.5 times during 2024 and is redistributing its production capacity.
Quote: “ISW previously assessed that Russia likely intended to further increase its production and use of Shahed drones and other Shahed-variants following the signing of the Russian-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in January 2025.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 March:
- Ukrainian military intelligence indicated that about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, an increase of about 40,000 personnel compared to late 2024.
- Russian authorities reportedly exceeded their recruitment quotas in 2024 and January 2025, likely in part due to increased financial incentives for recruits and prison recruitment efforts that are unsustainable in the medium- to long-term.
- Russian forces continue to innovate their strike packages and leverage larger numbers of Shahed and decoy drones in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine’s air defense umbrella.
- Russian missile production has reportedly not significantly increased, but Russian forces appear to be prioritising production of missile and drone variants that are more effective against Ukrainian air defenses.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to promote its “Time of Heroes” veterans’ programme as part of efforts to militarise the Russian government and society.
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