Russia uses same narratives against NATO as it did before full-scale invasion of Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Kremlin officials are spreading disinformation narratives similar to those Russia used to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin is trying to create an information environment to justify its potential aggression against NATO countries, including Finland and the Baltic states.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Kremlin officials continue to utilise rhetoric similar to that which has been employed to justify Russia’s invasions of Ukraine.
In an interview with the Russian national security magazine National Defence published on 13 March, Russian presidential aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated that NATO “traditionally” relies on threats as its primary tool in international relations. He also argued that NATO’s “European wing” persists with its policy of “blocking” Russia in the Baltic region.
Patrushev further claimed that the UK is “orchestrating” NATO’s efforts to aggravate the situation as part of a broader strategy to disrupt talks over Ukraine and derail Russian-American attempts to normalise their bilateral relations.
He also asserted that while Finnish authorities are hostile towards Russia, the Finnish population is more welcoming. He accused the UK of granting Finnish authorities the freedom to “do everything to deprive their country [Finland] of its sovereignty”.
Patrushev issued a veiled threat, declaring that the Gulf of Finland has a historical “geographic affiliation with Russia” and emphasised that “it should not be forgotten that Finland was part of the Russian Empire”. He insisted that the Russian Empire “respected” and “preserved” the Finnish people and their language, while accusing the West of “again turning [Finland] into a springboard” for aggression against Russia.
Quote: “The Kremlin has used similar false narratives about the Ukrainian government’s discrimination of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine and the military threats that Ukraine supposedly poses to Russia in order to justify Moscow’s invasions of Ukraine.
Patrushev’s claims that the UK is ‘orchestrating’ Finland’s and the Baltic states’ allegedly threatening behaviour are likely part of the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to drive wedges between the United States and Europe and to weaken NATO.
The Kremlin appears to be using the same general narrative playbook that it has used against Ukraine and other former Soviet states but is adjusting its narratives to exploit any tensions among Western states.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 March:
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine recently agreed upon in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and offered an alternative proposal that undermines US President Donald Trump’s stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine.
- Putin is offering an alternative ceasefire agreement that is contrary to the intentions and goals of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal.
- Putin’s envisioned ceasefire agreement would grant Russia greatly disproportionate advantages and set conditions for the Kremlin to renew hostilities on terms extremely favorable to Russia.
- Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war.
- Russian forces continue to clear Ukrainian forces from Sudzha and its environs as Russian troops advance closer to the border in Kursk Oblast slowed on 13 March compared to recent days.
- Russian milbloggers theorised on 13 March that Russian forces may launch an organised offensive operation into northern Sumy Oblast in the coming weeks and months and may also attack into Chernihiv Oblast – in line with Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s 12 March statements.
- Kremlin officials continue to use narratives similar to those that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasions of Ukraine to set informational conditions to justify future aggression against NATO member states.
- Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW) in violation of international law.
- Russia will likely expand its permanent military base in Belarus to enhance Russia’s force posture against NATO’s eastern flank.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Siversk and Toretsk.
- Russia continues its crypto-mobilisation efforts against the backdrop of US efforts to start the negotiation process to end the war.
Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!