Russian command may change priorities in its offensive in spring and summer of 2025 – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the Russian command may prioritise an offensive on Kostiantynivka in the spring and summer of 2025, which would slow down their advance on the Pokrovsk front.
Source: ISW
Quote: “Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid indications that the Russian military command may prioritise offensive operations against Kostiantynivka – the southernmost point of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast – in spring and summer 2025.”
Details: In December 2024 and January 2025, Russian troops advanced rapidly to expand the Russian advance south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but from early February 2025, the advance of Russian troops southwest of Pokrovsk slowed.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated during the Munich Security Conference that the situation on the Pokrovsk front had improved in recent days, and a spokesperson for the Ukrainian brigade operating in the area said that Russian activity on the Pokrovsk front had become less intense in recent days.
Russian troops attempted to advance north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne, as they appeared to encounter more coherent Ukrainian defences in these areas.
Ukrainian troops also launched several counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane (southeast of Kotlyne), aimed at threatening Russian positions in this area.
A Russian milblogger expressed concern on 15 February that the slowdown in the Russian advance could allow Ukrainian forces to launch significant counterattacks in the coming weeks and enable them to break up the Russian advance south of Pokrovsk.
Quote: “Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.”
Details: The analysts note that the Russian military command may also be prioritising an offensive on Kostiantynivka in 2025, and therefore is reportedly not reinforcing the Russian group of forces south of Pokrovsk.
Quote: “Seizing Pokrovsk has been the Russian military command’s main operational objective in Donetsk Oblast since February 2024, and the Russian military command could have redeployed elements of the 8th CAA [Combined Arms Army – ed.] to reinforce degraded Russian units on the Pokrovsk front if Russia intended to continue prioritising this effort in 2025.
The redeployment of significant Russian forces to the Kostiantynivka front indicates that the Russian military command may have identified attacking Kostiantynivka as its priority effort for spring and summer 2025.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 15 February:
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is attempting to create conditions to frame Putin as the victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations.
- Ukraine’s US and European partners continue to work to jointly develop Ukraine’s defence industrial base (DIB).
- Kremlin-controlled state media used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate the Kremlin’s false narrative about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s illegitimacy and Russia’s longstanding goal of destroying the Ukrainian state.
- Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid indications that the Russian military command may prioritise offensive operations against Kostiantynivka – the southernmost point of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast – in the spring and summer of 2025.
- Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
- The Russian military command may also intend to prioritise assaults on Kostiantynivka in 2025 and are thus reportedly not reinforcing the Russian force grouping south of Pokrovsk.
- Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to create regional analogues to the federal “Time of Heroes” programme, which aims to place veterans of the war in Ukraine in government positions as part of Kremlin efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarise society and government.
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