Russian forces intensify offensives and strike tactics amid suspension of US military aid to Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that in the absence of US aid to Ukraine, the Russians are intensifying their offensives on the battlefield and increasing the power of combined missile and drone strikes to exhaust Ukraine’s air defence and adapt to innovations in electronic warfare.
Source: ISW
Details: On the night of 6-7 March, Russian forces launched one of their largest-ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine. As they continue to refine their tactics, Russian forces are adjusting strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences by increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones in each attack.
This was the largest combined strike since November 2024.
ISW suggested that, starting in autumn 2024, Russian forces began to increase the number of Shahed UAVs and decoy drones in their strike packages, likely as a response to Ukraine’s successful electronic warfare innovations.
Quote from ISW: “Russia has likely leveraged the increased production of Shahed drones to increase the total number of drones launched in each strike package.
Russian forces launched an average 83.4 drones per strike package in January 2025, an average of 139.3 drones per strike package in February 2024, and an average of 128.8 drones per strike package from 1 through 7 March.
Russian forces have only sporadically included missiles in the January, February, and March 2025 strike packages, and the 67 missiles launched in the 6 to 7 March strike series is a larger amount than in previous missile strikes this year.”
Details: ISW noted that in the strike on the night of 6-7 March, Russian forces probably boosted the number of Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles to maximise damage to key targets in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the large number of Shahed drones, decoy drones and Kalibr cruise missiles were likely deployed to detect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defences and mobile fire groups.
“Russia will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defence missiles,” ISW said.
ISW believes US intelligence has played a significant role in supporting Ukraine’s early warning system against Russian strikes and its suspension is likely to affect Ukraine’s ability to respond swiftly to the evolving Russian strike packages.
Quote from ISW: “Russia also likely intends to force Ukraine into quickly depleting its supply of Patriot air defence interceptors – which Ukraine relies on to defend against Russian ballistic missiles – during the pause in US military aid and intelligence sharing to maximise the damage of subsequent strikes.
Ukrainian forces will likely have to be more selective in intercepting strikes as their stock of interceptors decreases with no resupply on the horizon, and successful Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities will likely have lasting effects on Ukraine’s ability to generate power for defence industrial base and civilian use.”
Details: ISW pointed out that Russian forces are ramping up offensive operations in specific frontline areas, likely aiming to take advantage of both immediate and longer-term impacts on the battlefield following the cessation of US aid to Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have intensified their efforts on the Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka fronts, while continuing their attempts to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast and capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Quote from ISW: “Russian forces previously leveraged Ukrainian materiel shortages prompted by a delay in US aid in spring 2024 to make significant advances in Donetsk Oblast and launch an offensive operation into northern Kharkiv Oblast, and the Kremlin likely intends to exploit expected Ukrainian materiel shortages to make additional gains if the suspension of US military assistance persists.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 7 March:
- Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 6 to 7 March as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defence umbrella by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike.
- Russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones in strike packages in autumn 2024, likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian electronic warfare innovations.
- Russia will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defence missiles.
- Russian forces are further intensifying offensive operations in select frontline areas likely in order to capitalise on any immediate and longer-term battlefield impacts of the cessation of US aid to Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently advanced into northern Sumy Oblast for the first time since 2022 – when Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces from significant swathes of Ukrainian territory following the initial months of Russian advances. Russian forces likely intend to leverage limited advances into Sumy Oblast to completely expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast among other objectives.
- Russian forces also recently intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing Chasiv Yar and attacking Kostiantynivka – the southernmost settlement of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian officials continue to explicitly reject making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals.
- Lithuania’s intelligence services assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to conduct a limited campaign against one or several NATO countries within three to five years, an assessment that is consistent with ISW’s assessments about Russian efforts to restructure and prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
- The United Kingdom issued Ukraine’s first tranche of revenue generated from frozen Russian assets.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
- The Kremlin continues to leverage its “Time of Heroes” programme to fill government positions with veterans of its war in Ukraine as part of a long-term effort to militarise Russian society and form a new cadre of loyal Russian officials.
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