Strategists pin GOP Senate hopes on Trump base coming ‘home’ ahead of election
Fox News
Republican strategists are predicting a GOP voter homecoming to support Senate hopefuls and down-ballot Republicans in critical states on election day, despite current figures showing their candidates at a disadvantage.
“A lot of the Trump vote just hasn’t put their jersey on for the Republican candidate yet,”one veteran Republican strategist said.
However, those voters are expected to “come home” and “vote straight ticket Republican.”
In Pennsylvania, a top battleground state, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick trailed Sen. Bob Casey, D-Penn., in a New York Times and Siena College poll earlier this month. Half of registered voters in the state opted for the incumbent Democrat, with just 36% saying they would vote for McCormick.
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“He is dealing with a little bit of a name I.D. problem,” the strategist said of McCormick. “He’s running against an incumbent who bears the name of a family that has been in Pennsylvania politics for a very, very long time. And Casey doesn’t really pop his head up very frequently.”
His challenge, per the strategist, is to “link Casey to the unpopular aspects of national Democrats.”
But he expressed confidence in McCormick’s ability to do so, praising his campaign so far. “He’s running a great campaign,” the strategist said. He added that the Republican also has all of the monetary resources he needs to pull it off.
“If he isn’t able to win this race, it’s just not possible to knock off an incumbent,” the veteran Republican strategist remarked.
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McCormick’s campaign did not provide comment to Fox News Digital.
Wisconsin Republican candidate, businessman Eric Hovde similarly trailed Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., in the same survey, but to a lesser degree.
In a statement to Fox News Digital, Hovde spokesman Zach Bannon said, “38-year career politician Sen. Baldwin has done nothing but fail the people of Wisconsin, serving a rubber stamp to the Biden-Harris administration’s reckless spending spree and radical open-border policies. The people of Wisconsin are ready for change and will hold Sen. Baldwin accountable for her decades of failure this fall.”
Republican candidates in Arizona and Nevada, Kari Lake and retired Army Captain Sam Brown, respectively, are also considered to be at a disadvantage in their races, as determined by a top non-partisan political handicapper. In addition to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the races in Arizona and Nevada are rated as “Lean Democratic” by the Cook Political Report.
Brown’s campaign did not provide comment to Fox News Digital in time for publication.
Per the veteran GOP strategist, Lake, who ran for Arizona governor unsuccessfully in 2022, “has a problem that was created with moderates in Arizona last time she ran. And she’s working on trying to bring them back.”
In some Republican circles, strategists are predicting Trump will need to pull off a significant win over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona in order to “pull her up.” This could prove difficult, though, as Trump won the state by less than four points in 2016 and lost it by less than one point in 2020.
Lake’s campaign did not provide comment to Fox News Digital in time for publication.
According to the veteran strategist, there’s an expectation that the Senate races “will break similarly to the presidential race,” particularly given the significant decrease in split-ticket voting in recent years. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only elected senator during the 2022 midterm elections that differed from her state’s presidential vote. All 34 other Senate races went the way of the respective states’ presidential choices.
The strategist further claimed Democrats seem to have “put their jerseys on,” or fall in line behind the party’s Senate candidate, relatively early on in the cycle as a result of the enthusiasm felt following President Biden’s campaign suspension and Vice President Kamala Harris’s replacement of him at the top of the ticket.
This was echoed by GOP strategist David Kochel, who said, “dumping Biden was the best thing the [Democrats] could do to reverse their lackluster performance. They have genuine enthusiasm that had been missing throughout the campaign.”
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Per Republican strategist Doug Heye, part of the issue for these candidates could be former President Trump himself. “Trump has a low ceiling,” he explained.
He added that “many of those Democrats were being held down by Biden‘s extremely low ceiling” before the president exited the race.
However, there could be more to it, argued Jim Kessler, Democratic strategist and former senior aide to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. “For a sizable number of voters the Republican Party is simply unattractive,” he said. “And that includes traditional party stalwarts.”
He claimed these “traditional” members of the GOP, many aspects of the party in the Trump era have been disheartening and they are holding out hope for a “return to ‘normal’” in the time after his leadership. “But to win the nomination these GOP Senate candidates had to kiss the Trump ring and it turns enough voters off that they are underperforming,” he added.
In addition, “Dobbs is a real problem for Republicans. Women and young people are not pleased,” Kessler claimed, suggesting the overturn of Roe v. Wade would continue to haunt Republicans in electoral match-ups.
Republican strategist John Feehery attributed some of the Republican struggles to the difficult nature of running against incumbents, as well as “the confusion at the top of the ticket.”
He noted that the Republican challengers have yet to unleash many of their television ads, which could be a significant point of momentum for them.
As for the Senate race in Montana, the veteran strategist said, “A lot of Republicans feel very confident” in former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy’s chances to unseat Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.
But even the Montana race and fellow “Toss Up” election in Ohio aren’t definite wins for Republicans, despite the states both voting twice for Trump. This is due to “the strength of the two most vulnerable Dems — Tester and [Sen. Sherrod] Brown — who just over perform the partisan ballot in Ohio and Montana,” said Kochel. “They’re really good politicians.”
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Campaigns for Sheehy and Ohio Republican candidate Bernie Moreno did not provide comment to Fox News Digital.
Kessler added that “the Democrats in these swing states have always performed better than a standard Democrat because that’s the only way to win in the first place. They had to be exceptional candidates to win the first time and they learn how to survive to stay in office.”
One race that has emerged as a significant opportunity for Republicans is the Senate battle in Michigan, a key swing state. With the incumbent retiring, Democrats have lost a critical advantage. The veteran GOP strategist claimed, “What I’ve seen shows that Michigan is extremely competitive.”
In the New York Times/Siena College poll, the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, came within one point of his opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., 41% to her 42%.
Rogers campaign spokesperson Chris Gustafson said in a statement, “The fact remains that Biden and Harris have crippled the economy with outrageous spending, their policies have flooded our streets with drugs and criminals, and Slotkin has been with them every step of the way. Michigan voters know Mike Rogers has their back and will reserve the failures of the last four years.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Philip Letsou said in a statement, “The NRSC has recruited political outsiders who are continuing to build name ID and close the gap against Democrat career politicians who have been in office for decades. Horse race numbers will tighten significantly as Republican candidates begin advertising more heavily.”