Trump’s pause of military aid will impact protection of Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War has reported that the decision by US President Donald Trump to pause military aid to Kyiv will harm Ukraine’s combat capability, but it will primarily affect the protection of Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles, an area in which Ukraine heavily relies on US Patriot systems.
Source: ISW
Details: The United States has been supplying Ukraine with a wide range of military equipment, including artillery shells, armoured vehicles, towed howitzers, Patriot air defence systems and advanced long-range rockets and missiles such as HIMARS and ATACMS, many of which are exclusive to the United States.
On 4 March, a Ukrainian official told CNN that the suspension could cause Ukraine to run out of US-supplied artillery rounds by May or June 2025. They also warned that the Patriot air defence missiles could run out of ammunition in a matter of weeks.
Quote from ISW: “Ukraine relies heavily on US Patriot systems for its air defence umbrella to protect against Russian missile strikes against Ukraine’s rear areas. The shortage and eventual lack of Patriot missiles is likely to have severe impacts on the safety of Ukraine’s critical, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine’s other supporters lack an analogous system that can protect against Russian missile strikes, particularly those including ballistic missiles.
As Ukraine runs short on Patriot missiles, Kyiv will have to make difficult decisions about which population centres to prioritise in terms of air defence protection. If it runs out of Patriots entirely then Ukrainian cities will lie open to Russian ballistic missiles.”
Details: Meanwhile, ISW noted that while the line of contact in Ukraine is not facing immediate collapse, the impact of the pause in US aid will intensify over time.
Two unnamed US officials speaking to ABC News on 3 March said approximately 90% of the weapons pledged to Ukraine through previous Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) packages have been delivered, including ammunition and anti-armour systems. The remaining 10% of PDA supplies is expected to reach Ukraine by August 2025.
“Private weapons contracts between Ukraine and US companies – many of which Ukraine has already paid for – will likely facilitate at least a small flow of arms deliveries to Ukraine ‘for at least the next several years’,” ISW wrote.
ISW noted that the United States provides roughly 30% of Ukraine’s arsenal, with another 30% coming from Ukraine’s European allies. The remaining 40% is supplied through Ukraine’s own domestic production.
“Ukraine will continue to fight with the materiel it currently has, with the materiel European partners have given and will continue to provide, and with the materiel Ukraine itself produces. The Trump administration’s aid pause will detrimentally impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and pursue offensive operations at its current rate, but it will not collapse the front entirely in the coming months,” ISW emphasised.
ISW believes that if the halt in US military aid continues, Russian forces will likely take advantage of the anticipated shortages in Ukrainian supplies, as they did during the previous suspension of US support in early 2024.
Currently, Russian forces are engaged in active offensives across Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, have recently stepped up their efforts in western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and are still trying to cross the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
“Russian forces will likely attempt to take advantage of the pause in US aid in order to make further gains in Ukraine’s east and south in order to justify their territorial claims to the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts,” ISW said.
Background:
- On 4 March, it was reported that US President Donald Trump had ordered all military aid to Ukraine to be paused, thus putting pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a spat in the White House.
- On 28 February, Zelenskyy, Trump and Vice President JD Vance argued about the war in Ukraine at the White House in raised voices in front of TV cameras.
- Prior to that, Trump had said at his meeting with Zelenskyy that he stood for both Ukraine and Russia.
- After the spat, Trump said Zelenskyy had “disrespected” the United States and was “not ready for peace”.
- Zelenskyy then left the White House ahead of schedule.
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