Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence chief: A ceasefire with Russia can be reached quickly, but not peace
Pravda Ukraine
Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), believes that while a ceasefire with Russia can be achieved quickly, peace remains out of reach.
Source: Budanov in an interview with Ukrinform
Quote: “Of course, the tactic of carrot and stick [will remain the main one for Russia in its relations with Ukraine – ed.]. They will always do this: put pressure on us and offer various financially attractive deals to other parties involved. This has always been the case and nothing will change.
The real question is ceasefire versus peace. These are two completely different things. Reaching a ceasefire quickly is, in my personal opinion, quite realistic. Achieving peace quickly is not.“
Details: Budanov reiterated that Russia currently needs a pause in the war. If it does not withdraw from the war by 2026, it will lose its “chance at global leadership”.
Quote: “The most it can hope for is regional leadership, which is entirely unsatisfactory for them. The financial cost of the war is too high. It prevents the country from developing, from undertaking large-scale projects, and more. There is a lack of technology and technological solutions, particularly for Arctic development and gas extraction and so on.”
Details: Budanov also pointed out that Russia faces “primarily ethnic and religious issues, as well as some technological challenges”.
Quote: “But none of these factors are enough to radically change the situation in Russia. The problem is the absence of a leader. If a leader emerges, everything could change overnight – just like it did with [Yevgeny] Prigozhin, for example. But without a leader, no matter what problems arise, things will stay as they are. The regime is completely stable. There is simply no one who poses a serious threat.”
Background: Earlier in February, Budanov expressed his belief that a ceasefire on the front lines could be reached by the end of 2025.
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