Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia to weaken Russian potential on battlefield – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia are crucial for weakening the potential of Russian forces across the line of contact.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: On the night of 18-19 November, Ukrainian forces carried out their first ATACMS strike on Russian territory, targeting an ammunition depot in the town of Karachev, Bryansk Oblast, following recent authorisation to conduct such operations.
The Ukrainian General Staff and other military officials reported on 19 November that Ukrainian forces struck the Russian 67th Main Missile and Artillery Directorate arsenal at the 1046th logistics centre near Karachev. The attack reportedly caused a primary detonation followed by 12 secondary explosions.
Western officials provided additional clarity into Ukraine’s capacity to employ long-range Western-supplied weapons against military targets within Russia.
On 18 November, EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell confirmed that the US had approved Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons for strikes up to 300 kilometres into Russian territory.
Additionally, Brian Nichols, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, stated in an interview with Brazilian news outlet O Globo on 19 November that US President Joe Biden authorised this expanded use of US-supplied arms, enhancing Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
ISW previously noted that restricting Ukraine’s long-range strikes into Russian territory allowed Russia to maintain sanctuary space in its rear areas, which it leveraged for military operations against Ukraine.
Quote from ISW: “Ukrainian long-range strikes against military objects within Russia’s rear are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities throughout the theatre.
These permissions, if as extensive as reported, are a new capability for Ukraine that may significantly degrade Russia’s war effort.”
Details: Ukraine has only recently begun acquiring the advanced weapons systems and military capabilities required for modern large-scale combat operations.
With continued Western support to scale up these capabilities, Ukraine could potentially carry out strategically significant counteroffensives in the future.
Quote from ISW: “The systems and capabilities that Ukraine has been receiving are all necessary to wage successful multi-domain large-scale-combat operations, and Ukraine has not yet been provided an opportunity to demonstrate what Ukrainian forces can achieve when properly resourced.
Ukraine’s systems integration, capabilities, and battlefield performance likely can improve, provided Ukraine and its partners continue undertaking the difficult work necessary to build Ukrainian momentum.”
Details: Ongoing and increased Western military support is essential for Ukrainian forces to reclaim occupied territories and impose sufficient losses on the Russian military to compel Putin to reassess his expectations for this war.
ISW added that Ukraine must approach any future talks with Russia from a position of strength. Meanwhile, strengthening Ukraine’s stance in potential talks remains in the Western’s strategic interests.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 November:
- Ukrainian forces have defended against Russia’s full-scale invasion for 1,000 days and continue to demonstrate incredible resilience against Russian aggression.
- Ukraine continues to improve its warfighting capabilities and prepare itself to be self-sustainable in the long term.
- Ukrainian forces conducted the first ATACMS strike on Russian territory overnight on 18 to 19 November, hitting a Russian ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast – days after obtaining permission to conduct such strikes.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine on 19 November in a clear response to the Biden Administration’s decision to greenlight long-range strikes into Russia and as part of Putin’s ongoing efforts to influence Western decision-makers into shying away from providing additional support to Ukraine.
- Russia’s adoption of an amended nuclear doctrine is the latest iteration of now-frequent Russian nuclear sabre-rattling and does not represent a substantial change in Russia’s nuclear posture, doctrine, or the threat of the employment of nuclear weapons.
- The Kremlin has continuously attempted to use nuclear sabre-rattling to deter Western military support for Ukraine and the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to inject nuclear threats into the information space indicates that the Kremlin is concerned about the battlefield impacts of Ukrainian strikes into Russia with Western-provided weapons.
- Ukraine only recently has started receiving the weapons systems and military capabilities necessary to wage modern large-scale combat operations and Ukraine may be able to conduct operationally significant counteroffensives in the future, provided the West reinforces building Ukrainian capabilities at scale.
- Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and in the border area of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of the city of Kharkiv.
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