US halting intelligence sharing could intensify Russian airstrikes on Ukraine – ISW
Pravda Ukraine
The halt in intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine could significantly strengthen Russian aviation, which has so far been severely restricted due to Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Russia’s rear. This could impact the course of hostilities by increasing the frequency and effectiveness of Russian aerial attacks.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: ISW experts noted that without access to US intelligence, Ukraine will have fewer opportunities to target Russian air defence systems. Russian aircraft will be able to operate more aggressively, reducing the distance required to launch glide bombs and missiles on Ukrainian territory.
“The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted on an end to the provision of all foreign assistance to Ukraine as part of any peace agreement,” ISW said.
ISW emphasised that Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russia had significantly affected the combat capability of Russian forces. In particular, the destruction of ammunition depots in the town of Toropets (Tver Oblast) and the Tikhoretsk arsenal (Krasnodar Oblast) has reduced missile and shell supplies, weakening the Russian army’s capabilities.
Quote: “Russian forces previously leveraged their quantitative artillery ammunition advantage and glide bomb strikes to facilitate battlefield gains by destroying settlements before deploying infantry to attack the area.
Ukrainian strikes against military targets in Russia also pushed Russian aircraft operations further from Ukraine into Russia’s rear areas, hindering Russia’s ability to conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian frontline positions from Russian airspace.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 5 March:
- The Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, one of many demands the Kremlin has made of the US, Ukraine, and Ukraine’s other supporters.
- The suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine will damage Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks against military and civilian targets.
- The suspension of all US intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine’s defence industrial base (DIB).
- The Trump administration has been applying considerable pressure on Ukraine, whose leaders continue to offer concessions and publicly declare their interest in achieving a lasting end to the war. These Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get Russian leader Vladimir Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.
- Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
- Russian officials continue inaccurately to place the blame on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – and not Russian leader Vladimir Putin – for the lack of meaningful peace negotiations.
- Kremlin officials continue to use business incentives to make further demands of the United States and to push the United States to de facto recognise Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
- Over 50,000 Russian servicemembers are reportedly listed as having abandoned their units and being absent without leave (AWOL) between February 2022 and mid-December 2024.
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