US intelligence says Russian nuclear strike unlikely after Ukraine given long-range strike permission – Reuters
Pravda Ukraine
The US intelligence believes that Washington’s decision to allow Ukraine to launch US weapons deep into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack by Russia.
Source: Reuters, quoting five sources familiar with US intelligence; European Pravda
Details: Intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded that a nuclear escalation is unlikely to result from the decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons.
This assessment has remained unchanged after President Joe Biden changed the US position on long-range strikes against Russia this month, the sources told Reuters. One congressional assistant familiar with the intelligence stated that the assessments had been consistent and that ATACMS would not change Russia’s nuclear intentions.
Russia’s launch of a new ballistic missile last week also has not altered this conclusion. The analysts believe the launch was meant to be a warning to Washington and its European allies.
One of the five officials said that while Washington believes Russia will not seek escalation with nuclear forces, it will try to respond to what it sees as an escalation by the US. One official said the new missile launch is part of that effort.
The intelligence data has helped guide the often heated debate over whether Washington should ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons at the risk of angering Putin, the officials said.
Officials initially resisted such a move, citing fears of escalation and uncertainty about Putin’s reaction. President Biden has changed his mind because of the North Korean soldiers joining the war.
Some officials now believe that concerns about escalation, including nuclear fears, were exaggerated. But they emphasise that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question.
Russia’s ability to find other covert ways to retaliate against the West is also a concern.
Background:
- On 19 November, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin signed an updated nuclear doctrine, which expanded the conditions for the use of Russian nuclear weapons.
- Putin also threatened Western countries with strikes after they allowed Ukraine to use its missiles to hit Russian territory.
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