‘We must choose a side in the US-China rivalry’: Taiwanese voters concerned over island’s fate ahead of election
Hong Kong Free Press
Standing alone in a crowd of tens of thousands of people, Chen quietly observed the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) campaign event on Sunday night in Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s second largest city, as outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen stepped up to the stage amid a roar of applause.
“Taiwan was not an easy car to drive. We faced many difficulties… but we were firmly on the road,” Tsai said in Mandarin, urging more votes for the party’s presidential candidate William Lai Ching-te, currently Taiwan’s vice president. “The car must keep on going steadily in the future,” Tsai added.
Chen, in his 70s, nodded, telling HKFP that Taiwan must keep alert to “its main enemy,” mainland China. “It’s OK for Taiwan to stay close to the US,” Chen, who only offered his surname, said in Mandarin. “The US might not fully support the independence of Taiwan, but it will not harm Taiwan’s sovereignty.”
Amid an escalating threat from Beijing – which considers the self-ruled island a breakaway province, to be unified by force if necessary – and wider geopolitical tensions, Taiwan heads to the polls on Saturday. Over 19 million voters are eligible to take part in an election that will decide Tsai’s successor and 113 members of the island’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan.
Tsai, Taiwan’s first female leader, has governed the island for eight years but was constitutionally barred from running again having completed two terms.
With the invasions of Ukraine and Gaza over the past two years, more Taiwanese fear open conflict between the island and China. Born in Taiwan in the 1950s, Chen said he was always “familiar with the potential of war” as the Kuomingtang (KMT) – now the main opposition party – once planned a counterattack on China after its defeat by the communists and withdrawal to Taiwan in 1949, followed by threats from Beijing in recent years.
“We’re already accustomed to this… a lifestyle under threat, and we need go on to defend Taiwan,” Chen, who before his retirement worked as an engineer in a state-owned steel mill, said.
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Ten meters away, a young man shared a similar mindset. “I want to be Taiwanese and I don’t want to become Chinese. In this sense, I have to vote for the DPP,” the man told HKFP in Mandarin. He did not give his name but said he was a YouTuber.
“We must choose a side in the US-China rivalry,” he added, holding up a poster mocking another presidential candidate, Ko Wen-je.
Ko, the founder of the four-year-old Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), has taken what he calls a more pragmatic approach to Taiwan issues, but has been criticised for being vague and wavering in regards to his China policy.
Just being practical
On Sunday, six days prior to the 2024 election, Taiwan’s presidential hopefuls all travelled to the southern city of Kaohsiung to hold large-scale campaign events. The three parties each took over three of the city’s main streets to push for votes. With President Tsai Ing-wen appearing on stage alongside the DPP candidates, nearly 1,000 police officers were deployed to ensure traffic control and security.
Historically, the island’s governance has rotated between the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), which is often referred to as the blue camp, and the green camp DPP, which wants Taiwan to be more independent in navigating its position on the global stage.
See also: Taiwan election 2024 – The 3 presidential candidates and what they say about relations with China
For 2024, the TPP has joined the fray. Its presidential candidate Ko, a surgeon-turned politician and now mayor of Taipei, has seen his popularity rise rapidly, especially among the island’s youth.
“I have been following Ko on YouTube, enjoying many of his videos. I think he’s very smart and has a quick mind. I appreciate that he’s using his intelligence to serve the country, to make it better,” En-hao, 22, told HKFP in Mandarin at Ko’s campaign event in Kaohsiung. He was there with his 21-year-old girlfriend.
En-hao, an architectural engineer, said both of them were first-time voters and keen supporters of Ko. “During the last election, I was only 18 years old and did not pay much attention to politics, ” the young man said. In Taiwan, the voting age is 20.
“I like Ko’s approach of just being practical, getting things done. Many of our friends also support Ko,” he added.
En-hao said he believed that Ko would take a practical approach to dealing with China. “As mayor of Taipei, Ko examined and visited many of the city’s air raid shelters, which I think have been long forgotten,” he said, adding: “he won’t be just shouting slogans.”
During his election campaign, Ko said that Taiwan should move beyond political polarisation and be practical instead of ideological. With his social media skills, he is attempting to harvest votes from independent and young voters. He has criticised the blue camp for getting too close to China, and the green camp for being too provocative, saying that he would find a better solution for the island.
Xue shared that mindset. A young mother and a civil servant living in Kaohsiung, Xue has also followed Ko closely on YouTube. She said she was an independent voter, with no firm party preference during previous elections.
“I think the DPP is getting too extreme [in dealing with China] and the KMT has become too pro-China. Neither approach is preferred,” Xue told HKFP in Mandarin at Ko’s campaign event on Sunday night. Xue, who only provided her surname, was attending the rally with her husband and daughter.
“For me, I don’t hate Chinese but I don’t want Taiwan to be ruled by Beijing under the framework of One Country, Two Systems, just like Hong Kong, and I don’t want a war either,” Xue said. “But if I had to choose between no war and no Beijing rule, then [I would choose] no war.”
Fear of war
KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih’s Kaohsiung rally started early on Sunday afternoon, hours ahead of his rivals’ events.
Many KMT supporters are elderly, with KMT members who served as local officials arranging tour buses to take seniors to the campaign event. But families and young people also joined the rally under their own steam.
Xiu, a young mother who only offered her first name, told HKFP that she valued her ballot as she wanted to express her anger over the ruling DPP’s China policy, which she thought would have a major impact on her life in the future.
Xiu said she felt increasingly insecure and had experienced “a sudden fear of war” in recent years. “People often wish for world peace. I didn’t understand that before, but after witnessing the war on Ukraine and the war on Gaza, I really want to make that wish,” she said.
“I have a huge fear that Taiwan will be attacked, especially as a young parent, and the DPP has become too extreme in provoking China,” she added.
An elderly woman who did not give her name told HKFP that she did not want Taiwan to get involved in war. “As ordinary people, we can’t ask for much. We just hope to stay safe and for peace,” she said.
On the stage at KMT’s campaign event, candidates running for KMT in the Legislative Yuan shouted: “A vote for the DPP is to send kids to the battlefield!”
Can’t reason with a tiger
Having ruled the island for eight years, the DPP has faced increasing criticism over corruption scandals, domestic policies such as housing and welfare, and its foreign policy, specifically towards China.
Opponents have called for a change in the island’s ruling party after eight years in power, but for retired engineer Chen, any alternative would put Taiwan’s sovereignty at risk.
In the last pre-election polls released on January 2, Lai was still in the lead, closely followed by Hou and then by Ko. However, Lai’s approval rating in most polls was less than 40 per cent and even if he wins the presidency his party is unlikely to secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan.
At the entrance of the DPP campaign event, the young YouTuber was urging young people “not to be fooled” by Ko, who once said that “both sides across the straits are one family. “
He also said he disagreed with the narrative that the DPP was endangering Taiwan by being too provocative, recalling a remark made by former British leader Winston Churchill: “You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth.”
“How can Taiwan reason with China?” he asked.
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